What If the Wizards Got It Wrong and Something Other Than CO2 Drives Climate Change?

Science Always Requires Testing

Climate science’s current premise is that CO2 drives climate change(1). What if CO2 does not drive climate change, or not to the extent currently thought? Climate predictions would not then be accurate. And is it possible that the practitioners of a new discipline that requires expertise in many fields of science can make such definitive statements about what will be with such certainty, when climate science is trying to decioher the past and the present? After all, this new discipline is attempting to integrate natural history, atmospheric and physical sciences, biological sciences, mathematics, earth sciences, statistics, and computational analysis. is A very complex undertaking not quickly hurried. (2) Yet, climatologists are doing just that while verifying and testing climate theories that take time, often decades. Would anyone be surprised if many of the climate change claims turn out to be a house of cards when I’m at change theories, real-time measurements, and tools used to understand climate are not even 50 years old(3)? Too many of the underlying assumptions in climate theories and models are not vetted(4). Yet, with all these deficiencies, climatologists want us to believe that their use of less than perfect tools and theories gives them the authority to claim humanity is causing catastrophic climate change and to demand society take immediate action. Arrogance anyone?

Possibly, we are witnessing a coup within formal science that has less to do with science and more to do with politics. The old Wizards of Science have been replaced by the new, improved Wizards in step with the new politically world view. Is it a coincidence that the great majority of climate scientists originate in universities that lean towards socialism or Neo-Marxism(5)? These Wizards of Science are much more savvy than the apolitical, simpleton Wizards they left behind. These wizards have found a new and much more financially lucrative future pushing an agenda in line with the left running Washington D.C. By magic, the wizards of climatology have dismissed the processes that ushered in the past ice ages and periods of warming. Then climate wizards to make money and gain prestige is to conscience the marks that this current interglacial warming period, which began around 12,000 years ago, these new elites of science have decreed that this interglacial warmup is different than previous warm-ups. And, even though temperature and sea rise have yet to reach the previous interglacial period that was 5 degrees C. warmer and the oceans 8 meters higher all last future increases in global temperature and ocean rise is the fault of CO2 created by humanity. By royal decree of climatologists, this current interglacial periods (Quaternary glaciation) is different. The natural forces that have raised the oceans approximately 120 meters (394 feet) during this cycle have magically stopped. The average ocean rise of 12 to 18 inches per century is now caused by human produces CO2.(6) These new wizards may be old and retired before their hastily drawn conclusions that ending CO2 created by humanity would stop climate change was wrong. On the other hand, these overconfident elites may not luck in, and their collective errors will become evident to the world.

If our elected leaders and appointed bureaucrats would pause for a little while and reading stock quotes and read articles published by reputable scientists that question much of the earlier claims that CO2 is driving climate change and computer simulations models used, many of them would understand that the IPCC climate change theories predictions are based on guesses as to what climate conditions were like in the past which may or may not be accurate. For example, temperatures estimates from the past use proxy data. There is no way actually to measure temperature in the past directly. It is important to note that the accuracy of the data and the assumptions used to determine past temperatures are based on theories, not proven! The simple fact is that there is no way to verify what the actual temperatures were. Even the assumptions that the sample proxy data accurately reflects the earth’s actual temperature during the periods studied are just guesses based on unproven theories and assumptions. Again, there is absolutely no way to verify that any proxy data used accurately mirrors global temperature for a given period. Statements about CO2 levels in the past are, also, based on proxy data too!(7) The causes of these cooldowns and warm-ups are not well understood. Many theories are floating around. How long the current warm-up will last is not known, or how warm the temperature will be when at its’ peak. This last point is essential, so let’s repeat it. There is no way to know how much warmer it will get during the current interglacial warm up. It is not even known if the Quaternary glaciation period is going to continue or if it has ended(8). Climate researchers do not know how warm the current interglacial warmup will become or when it will end(8). Any value attributed to human-made causes of global warming is only a guess. Since the causes of ice ages and warm-ups are not understood, this current warm-up could be typical or atypical. It is all guessing.

Why are so many willing to believe climatologists’ predictions of the future based on so little information? Climatologists have left out so many variables in the computer models they claim mimics real-world events because they did not know of them, assumed the variables were of little importance in forecasting future climate events, or some of the variables were too complicated to incorporate into the computer models. (9) There is no consensus on just how much the sun and the earth’s other dynamic systems influence temperature. Cloud cover, volcanic processes affect temperature and are continually changing. Even the Earths’ magnetic field, which controls how much cosmic radiation hits the earth’s atmosphere. Cosmic radiation is theorized to be a factor in cloud formation. Volcanic eruptions, cloud coverage, underwater lava flows, changes in solar output cannot be predicted with any accuracy necessary to give any meaning to computer simulations predicting the impact of one variable – CO2. Climatologists do not know how warm this warm-up will be, or how changes in cloud formation, solar activity, and vulcanism will change and impact temperature. How can climatologists tell us how much warmer human beings are going to make the earth? Multiple variables are affecting the earth’s surface temperature, yet, we are told that only one variable is a factor. This is not science; instead, it is fanaticism driven by an overly simplistic view of the world fueled by hatred of the civilization that spawned them.!

The Wizards of Climate have convinced the IPCC and signatories of the Paris Climate Accord that a 2C increase in temperature will be catastrophic(10a, 10b), and must be stopped at all costs. None of the IPCC patsy’s have questioned that if there is no way of knowing if this current interglacial period will reach 5C naturally as it has in previous warm-ups.: why animals, vegetation, fish, coral reefs that survived the last interglacial warm-up that was 5C warmer will not survive a 2C warmup; if a 5C increase brought by this current interglacial period happens as a natural process as before what’s the point?

Just as Dorothy accepted the wisdom and power of the Wizard of Oz, thinking that his bag of tricks and illusions were proof of his power, governments and the public have been convinced to accept computer simulations as scientific proof. The problem is that accepting a model as proof removes the Scientific Method from the discussion. Scientists eager to secure grants, prestige, influence, and secure tenure will find little in the way of incentive verifying someone else’s theory of computer runs. No proof means no verification by others. Computer models are now the heart of climate research and bypass the scientific method.(11) Computer modeling is easier and more comfortable than field work or actual lab work. The Scientific Method takes time to do. It takes time and resources to gather the data, run the experiments, publish the theory, and wait for other scientists to confirm, reject, or offer an alternative hypothesis. A scientist eager to secure funding, publish and tenure would find receive scant reward in today’s publish or perish world of academia adhering to the Scientific Method. The prestige of having the label science is sought, not the work. Public relations can be used by universities to keep up the illusion that the product is science and their people are scientists. After all, this is the generation that considers finishing reading a comic book the equivalent of reading War and Peace and have a hard time understanding how farmers can get the cellophane to grow around the lettuce. If there is no testable theory that can be used to test that then the Scientific Method cannot be used. Once climate science dispenses with the Scientific Method everything goes no matter how absurd? It is the Scientific Method that purged us of charlatans and soothsayers and opened the door to “reason” over “belief,” the enemy of politically based science. Just as there was no testable theory to disprove Ptolemy’s theory of the planets and ancients were conned by experts, as is done today, acquired power and wealth. Al Gore has become fabulously wealthy, professors pushing catastrophic warming have secured much funding, politicians have usurped more and more power in the name of stopping global warming. It will matter little to him is he is wrong. H will still be well thought of and very well off. It is the rest of us who are left with an economy that has been destroyed.

Snake oil salesman do not do well in the light of science. They do flourish pushing models which can continually be tweaked to continue the con. As in Ptolemy’s time, denial of reality is a must. The all-powerful model must be believed! Empires and civilizations have collapsed from droughts that last decades around the world, but now a long-term drought is proof of man-made global warming. Temperatures are rising and it has to be man-made global warming. The oceans are rising because of man-made global warming. As if they haven’t been rising for thousands of years. Now, that the sham is beginning to wear thin, the new pronouncement of proof that the earth is warming because of man, is the rate of change of this or that variable is unprecedented! Really? Is it not amazing, when a new slant is needed to continue the narrative that the very tools that are not necessarily accurate or reflective of global climate in the past are once again used to prop up failing models.

What if all those global warming experts and institutions who have abandoned science, the universities, governments around the world, the UN, the computer modelers, NOAH, Al Gore, and all the scientists with their expensive grants pushing global warming got it wrong! What if, it is changes in the sun, the Earth’s changing magnetic field, fluctuations in cosmic radiation, changes in cloud coverage and volcanism that bring about ice ages and warm-ups, and humanity’s production of CO2 is not driving climate change?(12) climate change?(13) What if the earth enters a severe cooldown and, people die not from the consequences of warming but cooling? How does one respond to a massive blunder that is up there with “the Earth is the center of the universe and flat,” Lysenkoism, or worse, Mao’s Great Leap Forward that results in the deaths of millions. How to deal with all those smug elitists, the overbearing bureaucrats, journalists and news anchors who pushed an error while mocking dissenters with all the enthusiasm of the priests who in past inquisitions persecuted non-believers to enforce the faith? What happens if food production decreases and people starve from a global cooldown? Ice Ages bring not only cooling and reduced growing seasons. They bring significant droughts that reduce food production too.(14) If people suffer greatly from a sudden and severe cooldown, do they not have a right to seek justice, bring down the governments and politicians who pushed warming? Should they legally take revenge on the bureaucrats, scientific experts, billionaires, media elites, and people like Al Gore and Elon Musk who became rich pushing global warming? What will be the fate of judges who now condone acts of violence and destruction in the name of global warming when angry mops do the same in the name of staying warm?

Arnold Roquerre

March – April 2018 Snow Cover North America